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Market Commentary #33

Written on August 21st, 2010

After weakness in stock markets in the last two weeks, we should take a
closer look at the economic recovery in the US. Uncertainty is rising:

1. Jobs: Initial weekly jobless claims are at their highest level in
nine months, jumping to the half-million mark the week of Aug. 14, up
from the previous week's revised figure of 488,000, the Department of
Labor reported today. This is the third week in a row that jobless
claims have risen. Read more here...

2. Manufacturing: After two months of slowing, the broadest index in
the Business Outlook Survey fell to minus 7.7 for August, from plus 5.1
in early July. Readings less than zero signal contraction, and the
numbers mark a period of declining monthly activity for the first time
since July 2009, the Philly Fed said. The report is "saying the
manufacturing pop has run out of steam," said Jim Peters, chief
executive officer of the investment firm Tactical Allocation Group
L.L.C. in Michigan. Read more here...

3. Housing: In short, mortgage defaults continue to set new records.
Foreclosures continue to set new records. Home repossessions by banks
continue to set new records. The number of homes being constructed and
the number of Americans applying for home loans is at stunningly low
levels. Read more here...

It really is no surprise. Warnings were given since as early as 2001
about the fundamental problems in the US housing finance markets. A
consens on these issues has still not been achieved. Watch the timeline
in the following video and you will get a good picture:

Will these developments have an impact on portfolio returns. You can
bet on it.

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